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HP2BWJ > SWPC 21.12.17 04:04l 51 Lines 1826 Bytes #999 (0) @ CEAM
BID : 5920-HP2BWJ
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar Activity Report and Forecast
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA<HP2BWJ
Sent: 171221/0255Z @:HP2BWJ.COL.PAN.CEAM #:5920 [Colon,Panama] FBB7.00e
From: HP2BWJ@HP2BWJ.COL.PAN.CEAM
To : SWPC@CEAM
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Dec 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 354 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Dec 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to
20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (21 Dec, 22 Dec, 23 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 505 km/s at 19/2200Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4134 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (21 Dec) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (22 Dec, 23 Dec).
III. Event probabilities 21 Dec-23 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Dec 074
Predicted 21 Dec-23 Dec 075/075/075
90 Day Mean 20 Dec 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Dec 004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Dec 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Dec-23 Dec 005/005-007/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Dec-23 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/20/20
Minor Storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 20/30/30
Major-severe storm 10/30/25
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