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HP2BWJ > SWPC 22.12.17 03:02l 51 Lines 1813 Bytes #999 (0) @ CEAM
BID : 6013-HP2BWJ
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar Activity Report and Forecast
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA<HP2BWJ
Sent: 171222/0144Z @:HP2BWJ.COL.PAN.CEAM #:6013 [Colon,Panama] FBB7.00e
From: HP2BWJ@HP2BWJ.COL.PAN.CEAM
To : SWPC@CEAM
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Dec 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 355 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Dec 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to
21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (22 Dec, 23 Dec, 24 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 428 km/s at 20/2119Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3763 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (22 Dec, 23 Dec)
and quiet levels on day three (24 Dec).
III. Event probabilities 22 Dec-24 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Dec 076
Predicted 22 Dec-24 Dec 075/075/075
90 Day Mean 21 Dec 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Dec 003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Dec 003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Dec-24 Dec 007/008-008/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Dec-24 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/10
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/15
Minor Storm 30/30/15
Major-severe storm 30/25/10
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