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HP2BWJ > SWPC 24.12.17 17:23l 54 Lines 1978 Bytes #999 (0) @ CEAM
BID : 6201-HP2BWJ
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar Activity Report and Forecast
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA<HP2BWJ
Sent: 171224/1550Z @:HP2BWJ.COL.PAN.CEAM #:6201 [Colon,Panama] FBB7.00e
From: HP2BWJ@HP2BWJ.COL.PAN.CEAM
To : SWPC@CEAM
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Dec 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 357 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Dec 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (24
Dec, 25 Dec, 26 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 404 km/s at 23/1536Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 23/1219Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
23/0639Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 2813 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (24 Dec, 25 Dec) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (26 Dec).
III. Event probabilities 24 Dec-26 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Dec 076
Predicted 24 Dec-26 Dec 075/075/075
90 Day Mean 23 Dec 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Dec 002/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Dec 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Dec-26 Dec 010/012-011/012-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Dec-26 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/30/20
Minor Storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/20
Minor Storm 30/35/30
Major-severe storm 40/35/25
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