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HP2BWJ > SWPC 25.12.17 05:23l 54 Lines 1996 Bytes #999 (0) @ CEAM
BID : 6236-HP2BWJ
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar Activity Report and Forecast
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA<HP2BWJ
Sent: 171225/0407Z @:HP2BWJ.COL.PAN.CEAM #:6236 [Colon,Panama] FBB7.00e
From: HP2BWJ@HP2BWJ.COL.PAN.CEAM
To : SWPC@CEAM
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Dec 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 358 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Dec 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (25
Dec, 26 Dec, 27 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 606 km/s at 24/1556Z. Total IMF reached 14
nT at 24/0722Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
24/0959Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1434 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (25 Dec), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (26 Dec) and quiet levels on day three (27 Dec).
III. Event probabilities 25 Dec-27 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Dec 076
Predicted 25 Dec-27 Dec 075/075/075
90 Day Mean 24 Dec 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Dec 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Dec 011/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Dec-27 Dec 011/012-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Dec-27 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/20/15
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/15
Minor Storm 35/30/20
Major-severe storm 35/25/20
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