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HP2BWJ > SWPC 30.12.17 00:31l 53 Lines 1947 Bytes #999 (0) @ CEAM
BID : 6714-HP2BWJ
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar Activity Report and Forecast
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA<HP2BWJ
Sent: 171229/2327Z @:HP2BWJ.COL.PAN.CEAM #:6714 [Colon,Panama] FBB7.00e
From: HP2BWJ@HP2BWJ.COL.PAN.CEAM
To : SWPC@CEAM
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Dec 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 363 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Dec 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (30 Dec, 31 Dec, 01 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 411 km/s at 29/1415Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
29/1115Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
29/1039Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1092 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (30 Dec), quiet to active levels on day
two (31 Dec) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (01 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 30 Dec-01 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Dec 072
Predicted 30 Dec-01 Jan 070/070/068
90 Day Mean 29 Dec 073
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Dec 002/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Dec 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Dec-01 Jan 006/005-008/010-018/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Dec-01 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/25/35
Minor Storm 01/10/20
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/10
Minor Storm 15/30/25
Major-severe storm 10/35/50
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