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CX2SA > SWPC 22.03.15 23:23l 63 Lines 2293 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 17485_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 150322/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:17485 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:17485_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Mar 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 81 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Mar 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (23 Mar,
24 Mar, 25 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 757 km/s at 22/0834Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 22/0734Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 22/0642Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 12337
pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (23 Mar), quiet to
active levels on day two (24 Mar) and unsettled to active levels on day
three (25 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 23 Mar-25 Mar
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Mar 122
Predicted 23 Mar-25 Mar 125/125/125
90 Day Mean 22 Mar 133
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Mar 012/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Mar 016/024
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Mar-25 Mar 016/020-014/012-015/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Mar-25 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/45/45
Minor Storm 25/20/15
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 25/35/30
Major-severe storm 60/55/55
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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