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HP2BWJ > SWPC 31.12.17 04:44l 53 Lines 1927 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 6843-HP2BWJ
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar Activity Report and Forecast
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA<HP2BWJ
Sent: 171231/0338Z @:HP2BWJ.COL.PAN.CEAM #:6843 [Colon,Panama] FBB7.00e
From: HP2BWJ@HP2BWJ.COL.PAN.CEAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Dec 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 364 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Dec 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to
30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (31 Dec, 01 Jan, 02 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 418 km/s at 30/1755Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
30/0632Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
30/1327Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 965 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (31 Dec, 02 Jan)
and unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (01 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 31 Dec-02 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Dec 070
Predicted 31 Dec-02 Jan 070/068/068
90 Day Mean 30 Dec 073
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Dec 003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Dec 003/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Dec-02 Jan 008/010-018/025-014/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Dec-02 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/35/30
Minor Storm 10/20/15
Major-severe storm 01/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/15
Minor Storm 30/25/30
Major-severe storm 35/50/45
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