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CX2SA > SWPC 31.12.17 23:24l 61 Lines 2199 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 31083-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<I0OJJ<LU4ECL<HR1PAQ<CX2SA
Sent: 171231/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:31083 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:31083-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Dec 31 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 365 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Dec 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to
31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (01 Jan, 02 Jan, 03 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 397 km/s at 30/2105Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at
31/2040Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
31/2025Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 839 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (01 Jan), quiet to
active levels on day two (02 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (03 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 01 Jan-03 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Dec 071
Predicted 01 Jan-03 Jan 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 31 Dec 073
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Dec 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Dec 004/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Jan-03 Jan 018/025-014/015-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jan-03 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/30/20
Minor Storm 20/15/05
Major-severe storm 05/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/20
Minor Storm 25/30/25
Major-severe storm 50/45/25
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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