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W7EES > SWPC 04.01.18 20:38l 50 Lines 1552 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 1649_W7EES
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Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<JH4XSY<JE7YGF<XE1FH<HG8LXL<N0KFQ<KE0GB<KM8V<
GB7YEW<N9LYA<W7EES
Sent: 180104/1859Z 1649@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.14
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 3 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jan 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (04 Jan, 05 Jan, 06 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 419 km/s at 02/2143Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
03/0754Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
03/0724Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (04 Jan, 05 Jan, 06
Jan).
III. Event probabilities 04 Jan-06 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Jan 071
Predicted 04 Jan-06 Jan 071/070/070
90 Day Mean 03 Jan 073
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jan 004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jan 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jan-06 Jan 006/005-006/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jan-06 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 15/10/10
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