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W7EES > SWPC 05.01.18 16:28l 45 Lines 1558 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 1651_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<OK0NAG<F3KT<CX2SA<7M3TJZ<ZL2BAU<GB7YEW<N9LYA<
W7EES
Sent: 180104/2353Z 1651@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.14
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 4 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jan 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one and two (05 Jan, 06
Jan) and expected to be very low on day three (07 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 427 km/s at 04/1550Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (05 Jan, 06 Jan) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (07 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 05 Jan-07 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Jan 070
Predicted 05 Jan-07 Jan 070/070/069
90 Day Mean 04 Jan 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jan 003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jan 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jan-07 Jan 006/005-005/005-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jan-07 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/20
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