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CX2SA > SWPC 16.01.18 23:22l 60 Lines 2151 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 32690_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 180116/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:32690 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:32690_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2018 Jan 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 16 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jan 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (17 Jan, 18 Jan, 19 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 488 km/s at 15/2223Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
16/1525Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
16/0639Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 138 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (17 Jan, 18 Jan) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (19 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 17 Jan-19 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Jan 071
Predicted 17 Jan-19 Jan 071/071/071
90 Day Mean 16 Jan 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jan 007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jan 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jan-19 Jan 005/005-005/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jan-19 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/20
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 15/15/25
Major-severe storm 10/10/25
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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