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W7EES > SWPC 18.01.18 22:02l 46 Lines 1601 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 1679_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<I0OJJ<LU4ECL<N0KFQ<NS2B<N9PMO<N9LYA<W7EES
Sent: 180114/2303Z 1679@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.14
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 14 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jan 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (15 Jan, 16 Jan, 17 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 612 km/s at 14/0231Z. Total IMF
reached 13 nT at 13/2113Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-9 nT at 14/0331Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (15 Jan) and quiet levels
on days two and three (16 Jan, 17 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 15 Jan-17 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Jan 071
Predicted 15 Jan-17 Jan 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 14 Jan 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jan 007/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jan 012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jan-17 Jan 009/010-006/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jan-17 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/15/15
Major-severe storm 20/10/10
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