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W7EES > SWPC 22.01.18 00:29l 47 Lines 1577 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 1696_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<JH4XSY<JE7YGF<VE3UIL<GB7YEW<N9LYA<W7EES
Sent: 180121/2227Z 1696@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.14
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 21 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jan 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to
21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (22 Jan, 23 Jan, 24 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 517 km/s at 21/2012Z. Total IMF reached 12
nT at 21/0813Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
21/1126Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (22 Jan,
23 Jan, 24 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 22 Jan-24 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Jan 068
Predicted 22 Jan-24 Jan 069/069/069
90 Day Mean 21 Jan 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jan 005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jan 009/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jan-24 Jan 008/010-010/010-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jan-24 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 25/20/20
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