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CX2SA > SWPC 22.01.18 23:23l 60 Lines 2164 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 33174_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 180122/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:33174 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:33174_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2018 Jan 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 22 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jan 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (23 Jan, 24 Jan, 25 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 584 km/s at 22/0042Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 22/0322Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
22/0228Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 449 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (23 Jan) and quiet levels
on days two and three (24 Jan, 25 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 23 Jan-25 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Jan 070
Predicted 23 Jan-25 Jan 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 22 Jan 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jan 008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Jan 010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Jan-25 Jan 007/008-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jan-25 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/10/10
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/10/10
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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