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W7EES > SWPC 24.01.18 19:07l 47 Lines 1649 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 1702_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IR2UBX<DB0RES<PI8CDR<GB7YEW<N9LYA<W7EES
Sent: 180124/1521Z 1702@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.14
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 23 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jan 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (24 Jan, 25 Jan, 26 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 532 km/s at 22/2225Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 23/1209Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
23/0343Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1111 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (24 Jan, 25 Jan, 26
Jan).
III. Event probabilities 24 Jan-26 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Jan 071
Predicted 24 Jan-26 Jan 071/070/069
90 Day Mean 23 Jan 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jan 008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Jan 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Jan-26 Jan 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jan-26 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/10
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