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OK0NAG > SOLAR 01.02.18 12:52l 112 Lines 4039 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Monthly SILSO report: International Sunspot Number and forecasts
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Subject: Monthly SILSO report: International Sunspot Number and forecasts
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#-------------------------------------------------------------#
# MONTHLY TABLE OF THE INTERNATIONAL TOTAL SUNSPOT NUMBER #
# AND 12-MONTH PREDICTIONS from the World Data Center SILSO #
#-------------------------------------------------------------#
Provisional International monthly mean Sunspot Number for
January 2018 : 6.7 (six point seven)
Maximum : 22 on 10 // Minimum : 0 on 1, 2, 3, 12, 13, 20, 21, 22, 23,
24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29
Provisional daily International Sunspot Numbers for January 2018 :
1.. 0 6.. 11 11.. 12 16.. 16 21.. 0 26.. 0 31.. 12
2.. 0 7.. 11 12.. 0 17.. 15 22.. 0 27.. 0
3.. 0 8.. 13 13.. 0 18.. 12 23.. 0 28.. 0
4.. 12 9.. 16 14.. 11 19.. 11 24.. 0 29.. 0
5.. 11 10.. 22 15.. 12 20.. 0 25.. 0 30.. 11
71 cooperating stations on February 1, 10 UT
Predictions of the monthly smoothed Sunspot Number using the last
provisional value, calculated for July 2017 : 21.0 (+-5%)
SM CM SM CM SM CM
2017 Aug 20 18 2018 Feb 15 10 2018 Aug 6 7
Sep 19 15 Mar 14 9 Sep 4 6
Oct 19 15 Apr 12 8 Oct 3 6
Nov 19 15 May 11 8 Nov 2 5
Dec 18 14 Jun 9 7 Dec 2 4
2018 Jan 16 11 Jul 7 7 2019 Jan 1 4
SM : SIDC classical method : based on an interpolation of Waldmeier's
standard curves; the estimated error ranges from 7% (first month) to
35% (last month)
CM : Combined method : the combined method is a regression technique
coupling a dynamo-based estimator with Waldmeier's idea of standard
curves, due to K. Denkmayr.
ref. : K. Denkmayr, P. Cugnon, 1997 : "About Sunspot Number Medium-Term
Predictions", in "Solar-Terrestrial Prediction Workshop V", eds.
G. Heckman et al., Hiraiso Solar Terrestrial Research Center, Japan, 103
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