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CX2SA > SWPC 06.02.18 00:01l 60 Lines 2119 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 34679_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 180205/2249Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:34679 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:34679_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2018 Feb 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 36 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Feb 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (06
Feb, 07 Feb, 08 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 446 km/s at 05/0709Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 05/0435Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
05/0023Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (06 Feb) and quiet levels
on days two and three (07 Feb, 08 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 06 Feb-08 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Feb 074
Predicted 06 Feb-08 Feb 074/074/074
90 Day Mean 05 Feb 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Feb 003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Feb 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Feb-08 Feb 008/008-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Feb-08 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/15
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/15/20
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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