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W7EES > SWPC 08.02.18 23:31l 49 Lines 1777 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 1740_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<LU4ECL<N0KFQ<NS2B<N9PMO<GB7YEW<N9LYA<W7EES
Sent: 180208/0110Z 1740@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.14
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 38 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Feb 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at
07/1347Z. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one and two (08 Feb, 09 Feb) and expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on day three (10 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 449 km/s at 06/2112Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
07/1133Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
07/0942Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (08 Feb,
09 Feb, 10 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 08 Feb-10 Feb
Class M 15/10/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Feb 077
Predicted 08 Feb-10 Feb 078/077/077
90 Day Mean 07 Feb 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Feb 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Feb 006/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Feb-10 Feb 008/008-009/010-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Feb-10 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/25/15
Minor Storm 05/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/15
Minor Storm 25/30/25
Major-severe storm 20/25/20
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