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W7EES > SWPC 11.02.18 21:42l 48 Lines 1707 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 1759_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IK6ZDE<VE2PKT<ZL2BAU<GB7YEW<N9LYA<W7EES
Sent: 180210/1210Z 1759@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.14
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 40 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Feb 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one and two (10 Feb, 11 Feb) and expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on day three (12 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 384 km/s at 08/2113Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 09/0326Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
09/0245Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (10 Feb, 11 Feb, 12
Feb).
III. Event probabilities 10 Feb-12 Feb
Class M 15/10/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Feb 078
Predicted 10 Feb-12 Feb 078/078/078
90 Day Mean 09 Feb 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Feb 002/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Feb 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Feb-12 Feb 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Feb-12 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/15
Major-severe storm 15/15/10
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