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W7EES > SWPC 11.02.18 21:42l 48 Lines 1730 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 1758_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA<ZL2BAU<GB7YEW<N9LYA<W7EES
Sent: 180210/1207Z 1758@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.14
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 39 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Feb 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one and two (09 Feb, 10 Feb) and expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on day three (11 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 403 km/s at 08/1441Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
08/2055Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
08/1906Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (09 Feb) and quiet levels
on days two and three (10 Feb, 11 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 09 Feb-11 Feb
Class M 15/10/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Feb 078
Predicted 09 Feb-11 Feb 078/078/076
90 Day Mean 08 Feb 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Feb 003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Feb 003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Feb-11 Feb 010/008-006/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Feb-11 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/10/10
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/15/15
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