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CX2SA > SWPC 14.02.18 23:23l 63 Lines 2330 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 35379_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 180214/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:35379 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:35379_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2018 Feb 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 45 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Feb 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on day one (15 Feb) and expected to be very low with a chance for
a C-class flares on day two (16 Feb) and expected to be very low with a
slight chance for a C-class flare on day three (17 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 401 km/s at 14/0912Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
13/2152Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
13/2137Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (15 Feb), quiet to
minor storm levels on day two (16 Feb) and quiet to active levels on day
three (17 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 15 Feb-17 Feb
Class M 10/05/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 05/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Feb 075
Predicted 15 Feb-17 Feb 075/074/073
90 Day Mean 14 Feb 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Feb 003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Feb 005/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Feb-17 Feb 020/028-014/020-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Feb-17 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/35/30
Minor Storm 30/25/10
Major-severe storm 10/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor Storm 25/30/30
Major-severe storm 60/55/30
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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