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OK0NAG > SOLAR 15.02.18 13:51l 141 Lines 4967 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: GEOALERT SIDC
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Date: Thu, 15 Feb 2018 12:30:16 GMT
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Subject: GEOALERT SIDC
From: ok0nag <ok0nag>
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:Issued: 2018 Feb 15 1230 UTC
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#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
GEOALERT BRU046
UGEOA 30512 80215 1230/ 9930/
10152 21152 30152
99999
PLAIN
NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 15 Feb 2018 until 17 Feb
2018
PREDICTIONS FOR 15 Feb 2018 10CM FLUX: 075 / AP: 015
PREDICTIONS FOR 16 Feb 2018 10CM FLUX: 074 / AP: 012
PREDICTIONS FOR 17 Feb 2018 10CM FLUX: 073 / AP: 012
COMMENT: Over the past 24 hours solar activity has been low. No significant
flares have been recorded. Active Region (AR) 2699 (Mcintosh class:Dso;
Mag. type:Beta) has been most active, showing considerable flux emergence
and cancellation. The greater than 10MeV proton flux remained at background
levels over the past 24 hours. No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections
(CMEs) have been detected. Over the next 24 hours there is a reasonable
probability that flaring activity will reach C-class levels with a small
probability of M-class flares.
The solar wind speed fluctuated around 310 km/s over the past 24 hours,
but
jumped to 350 km /s this morning with the arrival of a shock front. The
total magnetic field strength has remained around 3 nT, but began
fluctuating between 3 and 9 nT in the last few hours. The Bz component
has
fluctuated between -3 and +3 nT. Geomagnetic conditions ranged between
Kp
index 0-2 (NOAA) and local K index 0-2 (Dourbes) over the past 24 hours.
The above mentioned shock front arrived at 07:55 UT this morning. The
sudden increase in the solar wind speed (from about 310 to 350 km/s) was
observed simultaneously with an increase in the density, temperature and
the interplanetary magnetic field magnitude (from about 2 nT to 7 nT).
Since the solar wind speed was, and is still rather low, and the Bz
component of the interplanetary magnetic field was mostly positive, the
shock arrival did not induce disturbed geomagnetic conditions. The shock
is
probably related to the CME produced at 01:25 UT on 12-Feb-2018, which
was
anticipated to arrive at approximately 12:00 UT today. A large coronal
hole
that passed the central meridian a couple of days ago may also be the
cause, however the associated High Speed Stream (HSS) is expected to arrive
later today / tomorrow. Enhanced solar wind conditions from the coronal
hole and CME arrival are expected to cause geomagnetic conditions to be
unsettled.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 016, BASED ON 10 STATIONS.
99999
UGEOI 30512 80215 1230/ 14///
1//// 20750 3003/ 4//// 8//// 9////
99999
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES
NONE
END
UGEOR 30512 80215 1230/ 12/09 15101
10072 2//// 3//// 4422/ 50220 60011 31707 03000
99999
USSPS 21305 13172 02032 03015 33605 31410
USSPS 81202 14019 01942 06019 34208 31409
UMAGF 30503 80215 1004/ 14064 1/007 20101 31220
UMAGF 31523 80215 0000/ 14009 1/003 21000 30023
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
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