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W7EES > SWPC 16.02.18 20:50l 48 Lines 1713 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 1897_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<I0OJJ<LU4ECL<N9PMO<GB7YEW<N9LYA<W7EES
Sent: 180216/0023Z 1897@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.14
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 46 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Feb 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one and two (16 Feb, 17
Feb) and expected to be very low on day three (18 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 517 km/s at 14/2347Z. Total IMF reached 11
nT at 15/1545Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
15/1512Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (16 Feb), quiet to
active levels on day two (17 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (18 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 16 Feb-18 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Feb 073
Predicted 16 Feb-18 Feb 071/070/069
90 Day Mean 15 Feb 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Feb 002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Feb 011/017
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Feb-18 Feb 014/018-010/012-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Feb-18 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/30/25
Minor Storm 25/15/10
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 55/40/30
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