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W7EES > SWPC 18.02.18 20:09l 47 Lines 1606 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 1951_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IK6ZDE<VE2PKT<GB7YEW<AB0AF<KF5JRV<NS2B<N9PMO<GB7YEW<
N9LYA<W7EES
Sent: 180218/1417Z 1951@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.14
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 48 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Feb 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (18 Feb, 19 Feb, 20 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 533 km/s at 17/1451Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 16/2105Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
17/0032Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (18 Feb, 20 Feb)
and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (19 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 18 Feb-20 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Feb 069
Predicted 18 Feb-20 Feb 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 17 Feb 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Feb 007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Feb 012/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Feb-20 Feb 011/012-009/010-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Feb-20 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/20/30
Minor Storm 10/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 30/25/30
Major-severe storm 30/20/30
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