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W7EES > SWPC 20.02.18 19:21l 48 Lines 1699 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 1969_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<OK0NAG<IK6ZDE<IW0QNL<JH4XSY<JE7YGF<N9PMO<GB7YEW<
N9LYA<W7EES
Sent: 180220/1206Z 1969@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.15
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 50 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Feb 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (20 Feb, 21 Feb, 22 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 669 km/s at 19/0807Z. Total IMF
reached 7 nT at 19/1249Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-5 nT at 19/0330Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 13452 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (20 Feb) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (21 Feb, 22 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 20 Feb-22 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Feb 069
Predicted 20 Feb-22 Feb 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 19 Feb 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Feb 014/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Feb 013/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Feb-22 Feb 010/012-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Feb-22 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/15/15
Minor Storm 10/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/15
Minor Storm 30/25/20
Major-severe storm 30/20/15
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