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CX2SA > SWPC 20.02.18 23:24l 58 Lines 2075 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 35918_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 180220/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:35918 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:35918_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2018 Feb 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 51 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Feb 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to
20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (21 Feb, 22 Feb, 23 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 567 km/s at 19/2118Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 12611 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (21 Feb, 23
Feb) and quiet to active levels on day two (22 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 21 Feb-23 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Feb 070
Predicted 21 Feb-23 Feb 069/069/069
90 Day Mean 20 Feb 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Feb 011/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Feb 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Feb-23 Feb 008/008-010/012-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Feb-23 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/30/25
Minor Storm 10/15/10
Major-severe storm 01/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/20
Minor Storm 30/30/25
Major-severe storm 30/40/25
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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