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W7EES > SWPC 01.03.18 23:34l 48 Lines 1693 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 1973_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA<ZL2BAU<W9ABA<N9LYA<W7EES
Sent: 180223/0015Z 1973@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.15
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 53 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Feb 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (23 Feb, 24 Feb, 25 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 442 km/s at 22/1609Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 22/2023Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
22/1946Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 5758 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (23 Feb) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (24 Feb, 25 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 23 Feb-25 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Feb 068
Predicted 23 Feb-25 Feb 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 22 Feb 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Feb 003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Feb 008/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Feb-25 Feb 010/012-007/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Feb-25 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/20/20
Minor Storm 15/05/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/20
Minor Storm 30/25/25
Major-severe storm 40/20/20
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