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W7EES > SWPC 01.03.18 23:34l 48 Lines 1705 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 1976_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA<ZL2BAU<W9ABA<N9LYA<W7EES
Sent: 180224/0000Z 1976@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.15
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 54 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Feb 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (24 Feb, 25 Feb, 26 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 562 km/s at 23/1825Z. Total IMF
reached 10 nT at 23/0641Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-7 nT at 23/0526Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 1971 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (24 Feb, 25 Feb) and
unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (26 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 24 Feb-26 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Feb 068
Predicted 24 Feb-26 Feb 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 23 Feb 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Feb 009/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Feb 014/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Feb-26 Feb 009/010-011/014-018/024
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Feb-26 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/30/35
Minor Storm 10/15/25
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 30/25/20
Major-severe storm 40/50/65
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