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W7EES > SWPC 01.03.18 23:34l 48 Lines 1700 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 1978_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA<ZL2BAU<W9ABA<N9LYA<W7EES
Sent: 180226/0048Z 1978@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.15
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 56 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Feb 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (26 Feb, 27 Feb, 28 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 453 km/s at 24/2123Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
25/0726Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
25/1749Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 2610 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (26 Feb), unsettled
levels on day two (27 Feb) and quiet levels on day three (28 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 26 Feb-28 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Feb 067
Predicted 26 Feb-28 Feb 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 25 Feb 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Feb 006/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Feb 004/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Feb-28 Feb 018/024-011/012-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Feb-28 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/20/10
Minor Storm 25/05/01
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/20/20
Minor Storm 20/25/20
Major-severe storm 65/20/10
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