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CX2SA > SWPC 15.03.18 23:26l 60 Lines 2136 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 37840_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 180315/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:37840 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:37840_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2018 Mar 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 74 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Mar 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (16 Mar, 17 Mar, 18 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 533 km/s at 15/1657Z. Total IMF reached 12
nT at 14/2204Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
14/2252Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 309 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (16 Mar, 17
Mar, 18 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 16 Mar-18 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Mar 069
Predicted 16 Mar-18 Mar 069/069/069
90 Day Mean 15 Mar 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Mar 006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Mar 015/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Mar-18 Mar 012/015-013/015-013/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Mar-18 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/35/35
Minor Storm 15/15/20
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/10
Minor Storm 30/30/25
Major-severe storm 40/40/45
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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