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CX2SA > SWPC 18.03.18 23:27l 61 Lines 2209 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 38064_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 180318/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:38064 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:38064_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2018 Mar 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 77 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Mar 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to
18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (19 Mar, 20 Mar, 21 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 575 km/s at 18/2027Z. Total IMF
reached 10 nT at 18/2001Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-9 nT at 18/1953Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 7111 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (19 Mar), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (20 Mar) and unsettled to active levels on day three
(21 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 19 Mar-21 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Mar 069
Predicted 19 Mar-21 Mar 069/068/068
90 Day Mean 18 Mar 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Mar 010/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Mar 012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Mar-21 Mar 010/012-009/012-015/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Mar-21 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/30
Minor Storm 05/05/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/15
Minor Storm 25/25/30
Major-severe storm 20/20/40
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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