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CX2SA > SWPC 19.03.18 23:23l 61 Lines 2215 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 38132_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 180319/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:38132 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:38132_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2018 Mar 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 78 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Mar 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (20 Mar, 21 Mar, 22 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 624 km/s at 19/0443Z. Total IMF
reached 10 nT at 18/2128Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-9 nT at 18/2115Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 18302 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (20 Mar), quiet to active
levels on day two (21 Mar) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day
three (22 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 20 Mar-22 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Mar 070
Predicted 20 Mar-22 Mar 069/068/068
90 Day Mean 19 Mar 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Mar 016/020
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Mar 014/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Mar-22 Mar 009/012-015/018-014/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Mar-22 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/30/40
Minor Storm 05/15/25
Major-severe storm 01/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/10
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 20/40/55
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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