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CX2SA > SWPC 03.04.15 23:23l 61 Lines 2233 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 18368_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 150403/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:18368 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:18368_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Apr 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 93 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Apr 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
03/0726Z. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (04 Apr,
05 Apr, 06 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
605 km/s at 03/1650Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 03/0509Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 03/0735Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (04 Apr) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (05 Apr, 06 Apr).
III. Event probabilities 04 Apr-06 Apr
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Apr 120
Predicted 04 Apr-06 Apr 120/125/125
90 Day Mean 03 Apr 132
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Apr 022/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Apr 012/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Apr-06 Apr 012/015-007/010-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Apr-06 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/25/10
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/20/20
Major-severe storm 30/25/20
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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