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CX2SA > SWPC 10.04.18 23:25l 61 Lines 2206 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 39873_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 180410/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:39873 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:39873_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2018 Apr 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 100 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Apr 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (11 Apr, 12 Apr, 13 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 602 km/s at 10/1739Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 10/0225Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
10/0233Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1937 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (11 Apr), unsettled to
active levels on day two (12 Apr) and quiet to active levels on day
three (13 Apr).
III. Event probabilities 11 Apr-13 Apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Apr 069
Predicted 11 Apr-13 Apr 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 10 Apr 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Apr 011/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Apr 018/021
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Apr-13 Apr 015/020-015/018-014/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Apr-13 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/35/40
Minor Storm 25/25/20
Major-severe storm 05/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 55/50/50
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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