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CX2SA > SWPC 04.04.15 23:22l 63 Lines 2314 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 18417_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 150404/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:18417 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:18417_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Apr 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 94 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Apr 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
04/1154Z from Region 2318 (N09E57). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (05 Apr,
06 Apr, 07 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
607 km/s at 04/0241Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 03/2137Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 03/2137Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 281 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (05 Apr,
06 Apr, 07 Apr).
III. Event probabilities 05 Apr-07 Apr
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Apr 122
Predicted 05 Apr-07 Apr 125/125/130
90 Day Mean 04 Apr 131
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Apr 014/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Apr 011/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Apr-07 Apr 007/010-007/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Apr-07 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/10/10
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 25/20/20
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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