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W7EES > SWPC 12.04.18 00:29l 51 Lines 1704 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 3097_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<VE2PKT<N0KFQ<AB0AF<N9PMO<W9ABA<N9LYA<W7EES
Sent: 180411/2307Z 3097@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.16
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 101 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Apr 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (12 Apr, 13 Apr, 14 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 614 km/s at 11/0817Z. Total IMF
reached 6 nT at 11/0209Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-5 nT at 10/2106Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 10905 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (12 Apr) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (13 Apr, 14 Apr).
III. Event probabilities 12 Apr-14 Apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Apr 068
Predicted 12 Apr-14 Apr 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 11 Apr 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Apr 014/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Apr 013/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Apr-14 Apr 015/018-012/015-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Apr-14 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/40/40
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 05/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 50/50/50
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