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W7EES > SWPC 15.04.18 18:00l 49 Lines 1699 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 3111_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IK6ZDE<F6IQF<IW0QNL<VE2PKT<N0KFQ<NS2B<N9PMO<N9LYA<
W7EES
Sent: 180413/0011Z 3111@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.16
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 102 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Apr 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (13 Apr, 14 Apr, 15 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 557 km/s at 12/1016Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 12/0959Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
12/0956Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 22185 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (13 Apr, 14 Apr) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (15 Apr).
III. Event probabilities 13 Apr-15 Apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Apr 070
Predicted 13 Apr-15 Apr 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 12 Apr 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Apr 012/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Apr 011/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Apr-15 Apr 012/015-010/012-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Apr-15 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/30/25
Minor Storm 20/10/10
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 30/25/25
Major-severe storm 50/35/30
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