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W7EES > SWPC 15.04.18 18:00l 49 Lines 1686 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 3117_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IK6ZDE<IW0QNL<VE2PKT<N0KFQ<NS2B<N9PMO<N9LYA<W7EES
Sent: 180413/2300Z 3117@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.16
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 103 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Apr 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (14 Apr, 15 Apr, 16 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 530 km/s at 12/2314Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 13/1836Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
13/0028Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 25451 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (14 Apr) and quiet levels
on days two and three (15 Apr, 16 Apr).
III. Event probabilities 14 Apr-16 Apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Apr 070
Predicted 14 Apr-16 Apr 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 13 Apr 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Apr 008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Apr 008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Apr-16 Apr 008/008-005/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Apr-16 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/10/10
Minor Storm 10/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 30/20/20
Major-severe storm 30/10/10
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