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W7EES > SWPC 17.04.18 01:06l 49 Lines 1672 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 3193_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<LU4ECL<N0KFQ<NS2B<N9PMO<W9ABA<N9LYA<W7EES
Sent: 180416/2345Z 3193@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.16
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 106 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Apr 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (17 Apr, 18 Apr, 19 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 318 km/s at 16/0549Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
16/0544Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
15/2316Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 6481 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (17 Apr, 18 Apr) and quiet to
active levels on day three (19 Apr).
III. Event probabilities 17 Apr-19 Apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Apr 069
Predicted 17 Apr-19 Apr 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 16 Apr 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Apr 005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Apr 003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Apr-19 Apr 006/005-006/005-008/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Apr-19 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/35
Minor Storm 01/01/20
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/15
Minor Storm 20/20/30
Major-severe storm 10/10/45
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