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W7EES > SWPC 19.04.18 17:28l 48 Lines 1701 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 3261_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IR2UBX<DB0RES<DB0ERF<OK0NAG<IK6ZDE<F6IQF<IW0QNL<VE2PKT<ZL2BAU<
GB7YEW<N9PMO<N9LYA<W7EES
Sent: 180419/0028Z 3261@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.16
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 108 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Apr 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to
18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (19 Apr, 20 Apr, 21 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 313 km/s at 18/0235Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
18/1150Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
18/1543Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 4403 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (19 Apr), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (20 Apr) and quiet levels on day three (21 Apr).
III. Event probabilities 19 Apr-21 Apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Apr 071
Predicted 19 Apr-21 Apr 075/075/075
90 Day Mean 18 Apr 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Apr 003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Apr 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Apr-21 Apr 008/012-007/010-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Apr-21 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/30/10
Minor Storm 20/10/01
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 30/30/20
Major-severe storm 45/35/10
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