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CX2SA > SWPC 19.04.18 23:27l 59 Lines 2101 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 40591_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 180419/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:40591 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:40591_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2018 Apr 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 109 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Apr 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There is currently 1 numbered sunspot region on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (20
Apr, 21 Apr, 22 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 302 km/s at 19/0231Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1782 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (20 Apr, 21 Apr) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (22 Apr).
III. Event probabilities 20 Apr-22 Apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Apr 071
Predicted 20 Apr-22 Apr 072/072/072
90 Day Mean 19 Apr 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Apr 006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Apr 005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Apr-22 Apr 011/015-011/012-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Apr-22 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/30/25
Minor Storm 20/10/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 45/35/25
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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