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CX2SA > SWPC 21.04.18 23:27l 61 Lines 2202 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 40729_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 180421/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:40729 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:40729_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2018 Apr 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 111 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Apr 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to
21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (22 Apr,
23 Apr, 24 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 630 km/s at 20/2357Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 21/0701Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
20/2308Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 21310 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (22 Apr) and quiet levels
on days two and three (23 Apr, 24 Apr).
III. Event probabilities 22 Apr-24 Apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Apr 077
Predicted 22 Apr-24 Apr 078/078/078
90 Day Mean 21 Apr 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Apr 029/038
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Apr 011/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Apr-24 Apr 010/010-005/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Apr-24 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/10/10
Minor Storm 10/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 30/20/20
Major-severe storm 35/10/10
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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