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W7EES > SWPC 25.04.18 01:18l 52 Lines 1746 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 3369_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IR2UBX<EA2RCF<LU9DCE<GB7YEW<AB0AF<NS2B<N9PMO<N9LYA<W7EES
Sent: 180424/2328Z 3369@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.16
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 114 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Apr 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (25
Apr, 26 Apr, 27 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 436 km/s at 23/2315Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
24/2036Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
24/1834Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 15976 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (25 Apr), quiet to unsettled levels on
day two (26 Apr) and quiet to active levels on day three (27 Apr).
III. Event probabilities 25 Apr-27 Apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Apr 073
Predicted 25 Apr-27 Apr 073/073/072
90 Day Mean 24 Apr 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Apr 006/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Apr 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Apr-27 Apr 006/005-007/008-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Apr-27 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/20/30
Minor Storm 01/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/15
Minor Storm 15/25/30
Major-severe storm 10/20/35
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