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CX2SA > SWPC 06.04.15 23:23l 62 Lines 2230 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 18503_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 150406/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:18503 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:18503_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Apr 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 96 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Apr 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
06/1906Z from Region 2320 (S12E16). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (07 Apr,
08 Apr, 09 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached 606 km/s at
05/2137Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 333 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (07 Apr, 08 Apr)
and quiet to active levels on day three (09 Apr).
III. Event probabilities 07 Apr-09 Apr
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Apr 126
Predicted 07 Apr-09 Apr 125/125/130
90 Day Mean 06 Apr 131
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Apr 008/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Apr 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Apr-09 Apr 007/018-007/010-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Apr-09 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/30
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/15
Minor Storm 25/25/30
Major-severe storm 20/20/35
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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