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CX2SA > SWPC 03.05.18 23:29l 60 Lines 2154 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 41658_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 180503/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:41658 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:41658_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2018 May 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 123 Issued at 2200Z on 03 May 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (04 May, 05 May, 06 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 502 km/s at 03/1421Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
03/0128Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
03/1928Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 621 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (04 May, 05 May) and quiet to
minor storm levels on day three (06 May).
III. Event probabilities 04 May-06 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 May 067
Predicted 04 May-06 May 067/067/068
90 Day Mean 03 May 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 May 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 May 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 May-06 May 006/005-006/005-017/022
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 May-06 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/40
Minor Storm 01/01/30
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/10
Minor Storm 15/15/25
Major-severe storm 15/15/55
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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