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W7EES > SWPC 06.05.18 18:34l 49 Lines 1650 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 3491_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IR2UBX<DB0RES<DB0ERF<OK0NAG<IK6ZDE<F6IQF<IW0QNL<IW2OHX<UA6ADV<
VE2PKT<N9PMO<VE1MPF<W9ABA<N9LYA<W7EES
Sent: 180504/2314Z @:W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM #:3491 BPQ6.0.16
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 124 Issued at 2200Z on 04 May 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There is currently 1 numbered sunspot region on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (05
May, 06 May, 07 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 440 km/s at 04/0641Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 643 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (05 May), quiet to minor storm levels
on day two (06 May) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (07
May).
III. Event probabilities 05 May-07 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 May 068
Predicted 05 May-07 May 068/068/069
90 Day Mean 04 May 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 May 003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 May 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 May-07 May 006/005-017/022-014/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 May-07 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/40/40
Minor Storm 01/30/25
Major-severe storm 01/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 15/25/30
Major-severe storm 15/55/55
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