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CX2SA > SWPC 07.04.15 23:22l 61 Lines 2169 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 18545_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 150407/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:18545 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:18545_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Apr 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 97 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Apr 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (08 Apr,
09 Apr, 10 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 543 km/s at
07/0318Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 496 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (08 Apr), quiet to minor
storm levels on day two (09 Apr) and quiet to active levels on day three
(10 Apr).
III. Event probabilities 08 Apr-10 Apr
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Apr 111
Predicted 08 Apr-10 Apr 115/120/125
90 Day Mean 07 Apr 130
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Apr 008/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Apr 005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Apr-10 Apr 007/008-014/020-011/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Apr-10 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/45/35
Minor Storm 05/20/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/10/15
Minor Storm 25/25/30
Major-severe storm 20/60/45
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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