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W7EES > SWPC 12.05.18 18:44l 49 Lines 1683 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 3546_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IR2UBX<DB0RES<DB0ERF<OK0NAG<IK6ZDE<VE2PKT<ZL2BAU<GB7YEW<AB0AF<
NS2B<N9PMO<N9LYA<W7EES
Sent: 180509/2231Z 3546@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.16
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 129 Issued at 2200Z on 09 May 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (10 May, 11 May, 12 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 727 km/s at 08/2248Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 09/1451Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
09/1718Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 56756 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (10 May) and quiet levels on
days two and three (11 May, 12 May).
III. Event probabilities 10 May-12 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 May 070
Predicted 10 May-12 May 070/069/069
90 Day Mean 09 May 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 May 012/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 May 012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 May-12 May 010/012-005/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 May-12 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/10/10
Minor Storm 10/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 30/15/15
Major-severe storm 30/10/10
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