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CX2SA > SWPC 15.05.18 23:32l 61 Lines 2204 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 42614_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 180515/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:42614 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:42614_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2018 May 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 135 Issued at 2200Z on 15 May 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (16 May, 17 May, 18 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 467 km/s at 15/1049Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
15/1253Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
15/1413Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 21333 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (16 May), unsettled to
minor storm levels on day two (17 May) and unsettled to active levels on
day three (18 May).
III. Event probabilities 16 May-18 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 May 070
Predicted 16 May-18 May 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 15 May 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 May 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 May 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 May-18 May 008/008-013/018-011/014
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 May-18 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/40/35
Minor Storm 05/25/15
Major-severe storm 01/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 20/25/25
Major-severe storm 20/60/50
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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