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W7EES > SWPC 25.05.18 23:51l 46 Lines 1606 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 3685_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IR2UBX<DB0RES<DB0ERF<OK0NAG<OK0NBR<IW0QNL<IK6ZDE<VE2PKT<OK2PEN<
VE2JOS<N9LCF<KC8KPM<N9LYA<W7EES
Sent: 180525/2222Z 3685@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.16
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 145 Issued at 2200Z on 25 May 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (26 May,
27 May, 28 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 449 km/s at 24/2211Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 197 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (26 May, 27 May) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (28 May).
III. Event probabilities 26 May-28 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 May 076
Predicted 26 May-28 May 075/075/073
90 Day Mean 25 May 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 May 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 May 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 May-28 May 005/005-005/005-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 May-28 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/15
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/25
Major-severe storm 05/05/25
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